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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: mishedlo who wrote (223276)2/21/2003 5:06:41 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
you've obviously compiled some statistics Mish --

>>I have 70-75% success rate on QQQ.<<

I guess that means that 9:12 times you get within a certain distance of the close on the Fri expiration?? But from what starting pt on average the two weeks before?

Now for those times that "max pain" fails -- how bad does it fail?? You see my point?

It is great to know that max pain works 9:12, but if it is only predicting moves of less than 2 or 3% on average to the max pain pt and when you lose you miss you miss by a much larger margin -- it would be difficult to construct a winning strategy.

If such a strategy could be constructed, my guess is it would be arbitraged away by the black box folks??
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