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To: 249443 who wrote (195)	2/21/2003 5:29:35 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (2) of 221

CJ very interesting post. Are you in D.C. area? I live in Annapolis but rarely go to track unless my son in law is in town. I have been intrigued by mis evaluations of bettors in superfecta pools. Using takeout of 19% the theoretic probability of a win can be calculated as .81/(odds+1) and conditional probabilites can be established for the 2,3 and 4th place. Looking at Beaulah on 1/28 the following is based on M/L odds(final odds would be better but I dont know where to get these historically). 2.5,3,8,10 for super of 159.80 theoretic =1333 8,6,2.5,3.5 for super of 3940.60 theoretic=1875 Favorites up front super crappy payout. Favorites in 3 and 4 place excellent payoff. This phenomena may not replicate but it sure is a fascinating possibility. Any comments from the horseplayers??

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