>>> I'm glad I'm participating, not spectating. <<<
Me too! In a message to Ed Ajootian, two weeks ago, I had this to say:
>>> The XNG at 154-155 will tell us to fish or cut bait. If the fundamentals for NA NG are as strong as you, Russ and Que say they are, this is where it will show up. If the fundamentals are to support the E&P's over the next 6 months, you won't see the XNG fall more than 3-4% below the 50 week moving average. If it does, the market is telling you that the disconnect is going to continue and anyone still holding on to the hope that things will get better, are going to lose capital before they can be proven right. And, what good is it to be right if one doesn't profit from it?
Anyway, even the most ardent fundamentalist should learn to use some very basic technical indicators. Overbought and oversold ranges should help one time their buys and sells a little better, especially on the weekly charts since they are longer term. It's also important for those who rely on FA to know where major levels of support and resistance are. Even though they may not want to rely on TA to help with their decision making process, it would be very helpful to know where others are going to buy and sell, who do.
The XNG is at an inflection point. This is the week, in my opinion, that either supports your views over the coming 2-3 months, or it tells you your timing is way off. Either way should be helpful to you in looking forward.
XNG 154-155 is the key. Since we're using a weekly chart, the XNG must close above this support level next Friday. <<<
Message 18557381
The XNG did bounce off that 154 level.
==========================================================
I've also been saying for the past two months that I wanted to see the OSX break 88 on huge volume. Today it did so.
I've been saying for some time now, that I wasn't interested in catching the bottom. I'm interested in catching the movement. Studies have shown that 70% of a stock's price movement occurs in a 30% time frame. It's that time frame I'm trying to capture with the use of TA.
Like you, I don't know what sort of follow through we'll see next week, so I am prepared to get out at a moments notice.
If one is going to buy break outs, the time to do it is on strong volume. We saw that today in the OSX and this week in the XNG.
Back to VPI:
>>> If it was a seller that generated the volume in VPI, they didn't have to go far to find a buyer! <<<
Agreed, but buying at the bid isn't the type of buying I wish to go long with. We may see a reversal on Monday, we may just see the selling dry up a little. Neither scenario gets my dollars though. I must see prices rising on decent volume. I'm willing to sacrifice bottom price to insure a successful trade. I wish to eliminate as much risk as possible. I understand why others may wish to jump early.
dabum |
