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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call
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To: Softechie who wrote (3496)2/22/2003 2:08:00 PM
From: LTK007  Read Replies (2) of 11447
 
To ALL,take note. I have been reviewing AAII surveys all the way back to 1987.
We had a couple spikes below 20 in 94 but BEFORE the start of 1991 war, and this is crucial,the AAII was below 20% for 6MONTHS, and had readings of 12-13% numerous times.
The Sprear Report is addressing now and interpreting and i will read it later.
But they view this VERY VERY delayed response as significant an to be viewed with much caution regards being a bullish indicator.
They go into a whole discussion of time leading into 1991 and how they see the present psychology as different--key is this war must be just a peachy peachy a piece of cake like 1991 for a strong bull run.
We have been having "Smart Money" dip buying regularly the low points as they are betting we roar at the war's commencement, in fact some see this as their ONLY opportunity to make the big gains long side for this year 2003.
But projections for post commencement rally vary from 1 week to 6 weeks.
They will bail out fast and furious at the point they think the "relief rally" is folding.
All i am saying is this reading is NOT a simple one to interpret.Do not jump to conclusions either way. BTW i even downloaded an EXCEL viewer to see all this data:) Max
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