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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (29081)2/22/2003 6:35:12 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Hi JW, <<1. 76% of the US GDP is now devoted to debt service>>

This number is asymptotically reaching for 100%.

I realize that this is the aggregate and meaningless number the officialdom, economist and media (same difference) trot out to justify encouragement of consumption over production, and in so doing, given support to ever rising level of debt.

Few folks point out that, ultimately, all, as in 100%, of the economic well-being depends on production of goods, energy and food, (else why have services?), and that number is not growing, is slipping, losing traction, and only puffed up into a large GDP number through application of debt, waste, import, and hedonic magic. I think thus, suspect so, but am willing to be proven wrong by the developing drama.

The corner stone of any large consumption-centric bread & circus welfare economy built on ever-rising debt would seem to depend on continued globalization, and then ... self correcting. The number in question may hit 99.99% for a globe-spanning virtue empire before splatting;0)

<<2. $4.5 of new MZM money supply has generated $1 in new GDP activity>>

This untracked productivity of money measure seems to be slipping.

<<3. over 90% of all US assets are matched by debts …
4. personal household debt is now 107% of personal income>>

According to some, no worries, because debt service cost is within historical norm.

You worry too much:0)

Chugs, Jay
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