ok... let's assume that Wall Street cleans its act.
we still have to deal with the US government and its desires to orient debt into oblivion... that's a problem.
then the manufacturing cost here in the US versus China or any other third world country.
there are costs here in the US that simply do not exist in Asia/China, nor will they ever exist.
consider... the US has a population of 280 M (plus or minus) Asia has 3 billion. oil consumption is: 22 billion barrels per day in the US 19 billion in Asia.
What will happen when the Asian consumer really begins to be a "consumer" how are we going to counter that potential "consuming power in Asia"
--I am not advocating the case for Asia, I am simply acting as the devil's advocate and put questions so we can arrive at a reasonable strategy for...
1. the mere "investment" reward (for which we do not need to move anywhere)
2. as you indicate... there are families, and many other ties that will make it impossible for most people to even consider the "move-out" --i am a rare breed that if needed, (when push come to shove) i could move most anywhere. i am sure it will be harder now than it was then... but at times the idea appeals to me.
Look at the Europeans, many of them speak 3 or 4 languages (aside from English) and can live in many places...
so... either we create an environment that is conductive to continue here or else, we look for other environment that will provide the opportunities...
and so the question remains... How do we "change" in other to make our future in the fashion we expected it to be... (only a few years ago, retirement looked very appealing)... yet now, for many that is not even a possibility...
Manufacturing has got to be the way to preserve what we are looking for... new technologies (assuming the world will buy it)
either the cost of doing business comes down one way or the other... or we make a product so attractive that everyone wants it regarding the cost... as I go through these questions... I realize more and more that the US government will be very motivated to continue to devalue the dollar because it is a way to make the products less expensive to foreigners... (but what about investors then? it will make the US Dollar assets less attractive...)
another point is... today, the US market is the most attractive market there is... what if that changes? what if Asia can (slowly) energize itself and acquire purchasing power... i mean 3 billion gadgets at a small profit.... seems like an attractive market.... sans les Etats-Unis -g
Maybe I suffer of an extreme case of Paranoia... but things are happening at a very fast speed and things that I never dreamt would happen n my lifetime... yet, it seems that as things change, the speed at which change takes place seems to accelerate....
remember population growth has simply taken on a life of its own and the amount of people is what I believe is accelerating these changes....
All I can tell you is that I saw Shanghai about 5 years ago... the last thing it crossed my mind was... "Communism" now I am reading people like Marc Faber and he suggests moving there ?
something's up... and I do not want to get flat footed...
A great deal of research needs to be done yet... |
