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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (16352)2/23/2003 8:17:10 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
From 2/18 DPA:
STOCKS: Neutral. An indicator we don't talk about much is NYSE Members Net Buy/Sell. For much of the time it is difficult to infer anything meaningful from it, but extreme readings always rate comment. The most extraordinary readings ever seen on this indicator were in the four weeks ending August 24, 2001, which saw the largest bout of net selling in the 10-year history we have of the indicator. This chunk of net selling preceded 9/11 by two weeks, and it is strong confirmation of my assertion that we were headed for a crash in spite of what happened on 9/11.

The NYSE releases these numbers with a two week delay. The most recent release shows net selling of -103,175 as of the week ended 1/31/03. This is the highest net sell reading since August 2001, and, if you look closely at the chart, you can see it took place during a week that the market was flat, just prior to the two weeks of selling that followed. Wouldn't it be nice to have the kind of timing those NYSE Members have?

At any rate, this level of net selling may have longer-term implications . . . or not, but I think it definitely one more negative element to consider in our analysis. If selling continues at this level, it would be a sign that Members are heading for the exits in droves.
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