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Not So Fast
By William Raspberry
Columnist
The Washington Post
Monday, February 24, 2003
This is hard. So soon after very nearly swooning over Colin Powell's report to the United Nations Security Council, I find myself thinking the once unthinkable: I don't believe him.
It's not that I think the secretary of state -- the one member of the president's inner circle I thought we could count on to be straight with us on Iraq -- is lying. But I'm starting to think that his interpretation of facts and circumstances assumes so many things and ignores so many others that it comes to the same thing.
Whence my change of heart? For one thing, I've had time to digest that tour de force performance of earlier this month. For another, I've been listening and reading (particularly Dilip Hiro's book "Iraq: In the Eye of the Storm"). And finally, I've found it impossible to see how Powell's allegations and speculation -- even if they are all true -- lead so ineluctably to war.
The argument is that Saddam Hussein has defied the United Nations; therefore the United States must punish him. And not just with sanctions or diplomatic pressure but with war -- even though there is no evidence he is doing anything to us.
Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), in a recent speech that has received too little attention, put it this way:
"This is no simple attempt to defang a villain. No. This coming battle, if it materializes, represents a turning point in U.S. foreign policy and possibly a turning point in the recent history of the world. This nation is about to embark upon the first test of a revolutionary doctrine applied in an extraordinary way at an unfortunate time. The doctrine of preemption -- the idea that the United States or any other nation can legitimately attack a nation that is not imminently threatening but may be threatening in the future -- is a radical new twist on the traditional idea of self-defense."
The senator's concern is that we are about to set a precedent that will come back to haunt us. I share that concern, and this one: Who, with Powell having abandoned his effort to steer America on a saner course, will say to the president that this is dangerous stuff we're rushing into?
One gets the sense that the president is convinced he has to do this war before someone talks him out of it. The chief weapons inspector tells us he's found nothing and wants more time. The administration, certain the inspectors won't find anything, thinks we're wasting time. Just find "material breach" and let's roll!
Why so fast? Because Hussein will stall, the same way he's been stalling for a dozen years. A dozen years, by the way, during which he has attacked no one, gassed no one, launched terror attacks on no one. Tell me it's because of American pressure that he has stayed his hand, and I say great! Isn't that better than a U.S.-launched war guaranteed to engender massive slaughter and spread terrorism?
Maybe all Hussein wants is a chance to gas or sicken or nuke somebody. But isn't there a chance that he wants things that, to his mind, are worth trading for some of the things the civilized world wants? What? Allow this madman to blackmail us?
We don't describe it as blackmail when the North Koreans imply their willingness to trade a few atomic bombs for desperately needed economic assistance.
We don't call it blackmail when our pals the Turks, learning how much our war plans hinge on using bases in their country, tell us that the price of their cooperation has doubled -- pay up or find yourself another launching pad.
I accept the possibility that Hussein isn't interested in negotiations -- that he's eating very well and couldn't care less that his people are starving or that he's motivated by some combination of hatred and jealousy of the democratic West.
For this we should make unilateral, unprovoked war?
But, says the administration, we've moved all these ships and carriers and troops into place, and we can't just keep them there indefinitely.
Maybe it makes sense to them. To me it sounds like "I've got my gun loaded and cocked, so I might as well shoot somebody."
Colin, come home. We need you.
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