Elroy, Eddie:
I agree FTTH will not happen in a big way, but it will be better than it has been with this ruling. FTTH will take the form of straight PONS networks, aka HFC, aka fiber-deeper. So that will have the cable equipment companies benefitting. Metro/large enterprise fiber architectures will be built too, mainly by Cisco, to support this.
Notably cut out will be the telephone companies, who are pursuing a Copper-deeper strategy with things to bring more bandwidth to the home over Copper. They are trying to cross the television bandwidth divide, but with their active switching network, it is very expensive...thus the need for subsidy from telephone and the opposition to UNE-P. Their suppliers for last mile will not benefit, and until the long haul capacity is used up, their LH equipment suppliers will not benefit either.
Bottom line: the best play is SA, GI, Mot and their chain and Cisco and their chain.
JMHO
-Own
PS:
From LightReading this AM:
Dell'Oro Sees Equipment Shipment Dip
REDWOOD CITY, Calif. -- According to Dell'Oro Group, the Optical Transport Equipment Market declined 4% Q/Q in 4Q02 to $1.5 billion. Nortel, Alcatel, and Lucent were the market leaders in the quarter, claiming over 45% of the Optical Transport Equipment Market.
"All geographic regions, with the exception of Asia Pacific, declined this quarter," said Jimmy Yu, an analyst with Dell'Oro Group. "Although North American telecom service providers increased their Capex spending by roughly 30% in 4Q02, sales of optical transport equipment into North America declined 2%. Sales to Europe, Middle East, and Africa declined the most, and sales to Asia Pacific were flat quarter-over-quarter."
Dell'Oro Group |
