IC Knowledge - PDF - charts and tables found at the link
Capital and Materials spending
icknowledge.com
(thanks to DiDi on the Notes thread for the link)
The worldwide semiconductor market is supported by a capital equipment market that saw total 2001
revenues of $37.9 billion dollars, down from $60.7 billion dollars the year before. The CAGR in capital
spending is 19.4% versus a semiconductor CAGR of 15.1% - see figure 8.
Figure 8. Capital spending trends [1],[2].
One important trend evident in figure 8 is that the capital equipment market is growing faster than the
semiconductor market. If the current trends continue, by 2010 capital spending will exceed 30% of semiconductor
revenues, clearly not a realizable level - see figure 9.
Figure 9. Capital spending as a percentage of semiconductor revenue [2].
For 2001 Intel took advantage of their extremely strong balance sheet to out spend the nearest competitor
by 3.4x, with much of their spending going into advanced 300mm facilities. Intel had 6 300mm
projects under way at last count.
3.3. Capital spending by region
Capital spending drives capacity and during industry up-turns available capacity frequently determines
market share. Figure 10 illustrates capital spending by region from 1996 to 2001.
Figure 10. Capital spending by region trends [2].
Table 2. 2001 top 10 capital investors [2].
# Company Region
Capital Investment ($M)
2001 2000 1999 1998 1997
1 Intel United States $7,500 $6,674 $3,403 $4,032 $4,501
2 TSMC Taiwan $2,200 $5,000 $1,846 $726 $1,380
3 Infineon Germany $1,900 $1,650 $889 $1,071 $1,799
4 Samsung South Korea $1,800 $3,100 $1,800 $900 $1,600
4 Texas Instruments United States $1,800 $2,762 $1,398 $949 $1,039
5 STMicroelectronics France/Italy $1,700 $3,300 $1,348 $947 $1,035
6 Micron Technology United States $1,400 $1,415 $885
7 IBM Microelectronics United States $1,350 $1,350 $950
8 UMC Group Taiwan $1,200 $2,800 $1,720 $1,088 $1,075
9 Atmel United States $975 $975 $172
10 Matsushita Japan $900 $1,095 $410
Figure 11 illustrates 2001 capital spending broken out by end product. Not surprisingly, MPU/MCU/
MPR driven by Intel is the largest segment.
Figure 11. 2001 capital spending broken out product [2].
Figure 12 illustrates capital spending by type of expenditure.
Figure 12. 2001 capital spending broken out by type of expenditure [4].
3.4.1. Fab capital investment by tool type
The largest area of capital expenditure is fab tools. Figure 13 illustrates how fab spending is broken out
between different equipment types.
Figure 13. 2000 Front end capital spending by equipment type [4].
3.5. 2001 Top 10 capital suppliers
In 2001 Applied Materials continued to hold on to a dominant position. Applied Materials has a leadership
position in, dry etch, physical vapor deposition, single wafer chemical vapor deposition, rapid thermal
processing and chemical mechanical polishing.
3.6. Semiconductor materials market
The total market for materials supporting the semiconductor industry declined in 2001 to $21.046 billion
dollars from 2000’s $23.392 billion dollars [6]. The $21 billion dollars in materials spending represents
15.1% of the $139.5 billion dollars in semiconductor revenue for the same year.
Table 3. 2001 top 10 capital equipment suppliers estimate [5].
Estimate is calender first half 2001 revenue annualized. 2002 is fiscal year actual.
Rank Company Country 2001 Revenue
($M)
2000 Revenue
($M)
1 Applied Material United States $6,486 $9,564
2 Tokyo Electron Ltd. Japan $3,651 $4,177
3 KLA-Tencor United States $2,263 $1,499
4 Lam Research United States $1,832 $1,231
5 Nikon Japan $1,746 $3,461
6 ASM Lithography Netherlands $1,737 $2,029
7 Novellus Systems United States $1,671 $1,174
8 Advantest Japan $1,300 $1,584
9 Teradyne United States $1,262 $3,044
10 Dainippon Screen Manufacturing Japan $1,040 $1,385
Ashing
3.6.1. Wafer fab materials market
Figure 14 illustrates how the $12.7 billion dollar wafer fab materials market is broken down for 2001.
Figure 14. 2001 wafer fab materials market [6].
3.6.1.1. Silicon wafers
The largest segment of the wafer fab materials market is silicon wafers. Figure 15 illustrates the breakout
in market share for the silicon wafer market.
Figure 15. 2001 silicon wafer market by supplier [7]
The silicon wafer market is a market in crisis. Manufacturers made massive investments in 200mm
manufacturing investments only to see 200mm wafer prices collapse before they recouped their investments.
Waste increases as wafer size increases raising manufacturing costs even on a per square inch basis.
The 200mm investments have been followed by huge investments in 300mm wafer development only to
see 300mm wafer use delayed. For 2000, all of the seven largest silicon suppliers lost money except for
MEMC. In 2001 MEMC was rescued by an investment group and Sumitomo Metal Industries and Mitsubishi
Materials have recently completed a merger of their wafer manufacturing operations to become the
second largest wafer manufacturer after SEH. Further consolidation and pricing rationalization are still
required.
By comparing the actual semiconductor revenue presented in figure 1, to the number of square inches
of silicon consumed to produce the revenue, we can establish a correlation useful for forward predictions -
see figure 16.
Figure 16. Silicon wafer area consumed versus semiconductor revenue [1],[2],[7],[8].
In figure 16 the green filled diamonds are actual data points correlating semiconductor revenue in billion
of dollars to millions of square inches of silicon. The green line is a linear fit to the green filled diamonds
and the resulting equation and R2 value are displayed on the chart. Combining the equation for
silicon required versus revenue with the IC Insights revenue projection presented in figure 1, results in a
forecast of required silicon for the next several years. Figure 19 illustrates trends in millions of square
inches of silicon consumed by wafer size and in total.
There are several elements to figure 17. Each wafer size is represented by a different color and the total
square inches is represented by the dark black line. The light black line is the 11.3% CAGR trend line. The
forward forecast for total square inches was developed as described above. The forecast for 150mm wafers
and smaller is just a projection of the declining use trends typically seen. the 300mm forecast is built up
from a detailed analysis of when 300mm capacity is coming on-line and is taken from our 300mm watch
database - see figure 18. The 200mm usage is the remaining uncommitted square inches. The assumption
we are making is that all available 300mm capacity will be used at the expense of 200mm usage.
Figure 17. Silicon wafer trends. Data up to 1992 and format [8],
data 1993 to 2001 [7], forecast 2002 to 2005, IC Knowledge.
Figure 18. 300mm fabs and output trends [9].
The distribution of 300mm fabs by country is illustrated in figure 19. The leading country for 300mm
fab construction is the US lead by Intel with 5 US based fabs in-use or under construction.
Figure 19. 300mm wafer fabs by country [9].
Figure 20 illustrates the initial fab capacity and final fab capacity (after ramp-up) for currently planned
300mm fabs. The most common fab capacity after ramp-up is 30K wafers/month with 40K wafer per
month second most common.
3.6.2. Packaging materials market
The total packaging materials market for 2001 was $8.3 billion dollars [6]. Figure 21 illustrates the
breakout of packaging materials by material type. |
