I don't know what you mean by "if you dare" - I nominate that for post of the year! (Or should I say YTD?<g>)
Overall excellent, although I do think you were presuming too much when you made the claim that "any long-term Trekkie" would be made uncomfortable by Bob's voice taking on an edge.
I should add that I am taking your word for what was said - I haven't been listening to the broadcasts much lately.
Regarding the model portfolios, I've said before that Bob should have stated in the bulletin whether they would be affected. While Bob had a consistent practice of specifically saying so when model portfolios were to be changed, it is certainly likely that some of those who were following a model portfolio would have overlooked that fact, especially when you consider that Hulbert, one of the major professional trackers of market timing services, did so. You raise a good point when you question whether it's realistic to assume that people who did this would have then sold the position based on the comments in the November newsletter. My guess is that it depended on the individual investor, in terms of how determined they were to stick to a model portfolio, and whether the entry point they happened to get had them in the black or not after they received the November newsletter. The waters are certainly muddy at best. As I've said before, he really ought, at a minimum, to publish versions of his results that include the effects of QQQ for both the most aggressive and conservative investors, in addition to his model portfolio results.
This brings up another point: When Hulbert called Brinker in November of 2000 to discuss what to do about the fact that he had counted QQQ as applying to the model portfolios, Brinker should have given his subscribers the same advice as he gave Hulbert, in another bulletin, if necessary.
I still disagree with those who say he should have included QQQ in the model portfolios in November of 2000. While it is true that this would have resulted in a more honest portrayal of his results, it would also have dragged at least some additional subscribers into the QQQ trade. There are other ways in which the goal of accurate reporting could have been achieved without harming additional investors. |
