Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1862833

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.440

+1.9%

3:08 PM EST

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To: Haolin Ni who wrote (41)	7/29/1997 6:06:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 645

Hi Haolin, There is clear evidence that the flu causes 20,000 + deaths/yr and whether the cause is direclty or indirectly related to influenza is irrevelant. Just as patients don't actually die of AIDS it still is the cause for impaired immune systems that allow the patient to be susceptable to infections that ultimately kill the patients. Vector1 posted some numbers that are in line with Sturza's analysis. They are as follows. Approx 80 million influenza vaccines are sold in the USA each year at a cost of $2 each. This does not include the 68 million children who are not currently vacinated bringing the total mkt population to 148 million. The total cost of administering vaccines including labor and supplies is $10. Assuming a conservative price of $8 per dose and a 25% mkt penetration in its second yr should result in sales of approx $296 million. I hesitate to put a multiple on this revenue figure and discount it into today's price, but I assure you it is a large number and wouldn't want to be accused of hyping the situation. My belief is that the mode of delivery being a nasal spray relative to shots is huge potential and the fact that the efficacy is superior is not a situation one would want to short. If you have shorted without a losing trade, I congradulate you but in truth all you are telling me is that you are new to the game with not much experience. Talk to me 5 yrs from now with an audited or verifiable results with similar success and the necessary loses that teach the true lessons of investing, and then your in the game to achieve accolades. I also have learned 15 yrs ago that a proud opinion precedes a fall so my advice is to research with intensity and the kudos will fall in place. As far as AVIR's product not being long lasting is not a point that I would want to use as a basis to short this stock. Obviously, the facts are that AVIR vaccine lasted long enough to show the highest efficacy for any FDA trial against influenza during the flu season and if additional nasal sprays are needed to increase the duration then this would only add to the potential mkt size. I wish you luck in all of your investments and look forward to any unbiased data that you provide from your field of expertise.

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