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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: kodiak_bull who started this subject2/26/2003 12:03:13 PM
From: Steven C. Vartan  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
Goldman Sachs note on AYE. Looks like it is going into the bargain basement.

Allegheny Energy, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2002E US$1.25, 2003E US$1.35 Outperform/Neutral
(AYE) $8.20
On 2/25/03, AYE announced a long-awaited $2.4 billion refinancing package. We
expect investor perception to be negative during the near-term due to management's
projections for depressed EPS of just under $1.00. Other distressed utilities trade at
7.5-8.5X EPS, indicating that AYE may trade down to $7-$8/share. However,
although management's net income forecast is disappointing, the extended maturity
schedule in the refinancing package, multiple debt repayment options, forecast
positive free cash flow for 2004, AYE's attractive asset mix, and likelihood that the
8-K is probably on the conservative side make the stock interesting for long term
investors, and we would be aggressive buyers of AYE if the shares fell below $7.
Our rating remains Outperform. Our sector view is Neutral.
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