JB:
Nicely done! 'fraid we're headed south a bit from here, though
hopefully not much. I'm sure not selling my stake in this
fabulous company at fire-sale prices.
Re. future directions, again you have to have faith in the valuation
model. The ho-hum announcement will have the P/E down to 35 or lower.
At $3.43 X 35 P/E you get $120. I bet we see that price again once
the market picks up. Problem is, a down market nervous about future
earnings might value it at 30 P/E, which gets you $103. At 120, a 5%
discount gets you 114, which we're very likely to see before the
correction is over (perhaps we'll see it tomorrow), while a 10%
discount gets you 108. The 103 price would represent almost a 15%
discount.
There's never a bad time to buy MSFT, only good times and great times.
Always buy at discount in an overvalued market like this one, just to
be safe. What price you buy depends on how greedy you are versus
how nervous you are. I'm usually nervous and always extremely greedy,
so I won't begin nibbling again until <112. If we see <105 I'll be
buying big-time. If we don't ever see these prices again, well, so
what? I've got 1000s of shares already, and I'm sure I'll be able
to find some other way to invest my loose change. |
