What is everyone's latest thinking on Market when war starts?
It seems like the world situation is such a complicated mess, with competing outcomes, factions, regional interests, and so forth, that even the =start= of an invasion of Iraq, (IMHO) will sag the markets. In the Kuwaiti conflict of 1991, it was pretty easy to measure progress, with the goal of "liberating Kuwait", so from hour one, it was 10% done, 20% done, 40% done.... the end was more in sight. Here, you need regime change, with one guy as the target. Whether he is even in Baghdad when Baghdad is surrounded cannot be certain. He has doubles... they could be ordered here and there. The city of Baghdad could become a tough little nut, with the rest of the country giving up, and yet Baghdad with die-hards holding out for week after week, and the US holding back, not having Saddam, not blitzing the "tough nut" because of civilians... if this is the case, I see the DJIA at sub-7000. Just my gut "outlook".
Any other armchair world leaders here? |
