thoughts on oil as an Islamic weapon: an absolute certainty
I expect many things to unfold:
- promises of increased offsetting oil supply during conflict will soon turn to oil embargo threats, then actual embargo
- oil subsidies to other minor Islamic nations, to defray the rising costs, and not hurt their neighbors
- consideration of oil pricing in euro currency terms will not happen, but will be discussed
- later, oil will be priced in Islamic Dinars, leading to a further extension in the gold price, probably by late 2004
- AlQaeda will destroy some oil facilities, with 90% likelihood that it will occur in Saudi Arabia, in response to their support of USMilitary, thus negating Saudi's promise to offset oil interruptions
- oil will be the weapon used at the margin for Islamic financial retaliation... by that I mean fresh money taken in from the USA via exports will be converted quickly out of dollarized securities and into euro securities and gold... but existing reserves held across the Islamic world will continue to be diversified into gold and out of the dollar (USTBonds, S&P)
the net result of this pressure put on Iraq will be an energy cost increase that without a doubt send the US economy into a recession (if not there already), AND threaten future oil shipments (not free access to Iraqi oil), AND lead to rising longterm interest rates
WE WILL NEVER SEE A DROP OF FREE IRAQI OIL
we import 90% of Iraq's oil shipments, ironically
this fact is never reported in the press & media (sleeping clowns)
WE WILL NOT ATTACK IRAQ OR TAKE OVER THEIR OILFIELDS
we will back down, and face harsh criticism for useless military preparations and spending
the main reason: CERTAIN RETALIATION FINANCIALLY AND TERRORISM DOMESTICALLY
this is part of a grand misguided plan to stimulate the US economy by pushing it toward a wartime economy, make easy any federal deficit spending on defense (and offense)
already Congress is disputing non-approved spending
all this talk about Democracy in Iraq is utterly insane
they have no history of democracy in its politics dating back to Nebachednezzar and Sargon !!!
there is no democracy in all the Arab world
probably never will be either
/ jim |
