Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1863653

STOCKTALK

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.070

-12.0%

Nov 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Haolin Ni who wrote (51)	7/29/1997 8:17:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 645

I don't believe that I am having to convince someone that a nasal vaccine for influenza is a HUGE potential mkt. The numbers that Sturza uses are 148 million people in the USA that would be realistic mkt for AVIR's product. This 148 million people consists of 80 million vaccines that are given each yr for influenza plus 68 million children who who are not vaccinated and would be prime candidates for AVIR's product. At $8 per vaccine [8x148= one billion one hundred eighty four million dollar mkt]. If you consider this potential mkt size a small mkt then God bless. This is only the US mkt and the world mkt is obviously a multiple of this figure. I believe the mkt is even larger for a nasal spray that many would be patients that are not vaccinated due to their fear of shots. Give me substance to back your short position such as patents, competition, technology, and I'll be the first to acknowledge your opinion right or wrong. As my first post stated that clearly this stock should come down due to technical reasons such as over extension on a short and long term chart, and one huge gap that needs to be filled on the downside. In spite of the negative technicals, I have not heard of any fundamental reason to be short this stock and to the contrary leads me too want to own this stock. My time frame is not a few months and if the stock is substantially higher or lower does not prove anyone right or wrong unless you're clearly in this for a short term trade. If I wanted a short term trade I would sell tomorrow and take my profits and in the short term this might make one feel good but does not compare to the potential of a buy hold strategy. This is not to say that short term trading is not a profitable business but rather it is NOT as profitable as a long term buy hold strategy. Good luck.

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