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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den
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To: TimeToMakeTheInvs who wrote (8307)2/27/2003 6:36:35 PM
From: GrillSgt  Read Replies (2) of 10157
 
Hi Ttmt..Yes, and definately finished as upcycle...yesterday <g>

Ends are tough to call, it's just more subjective near the end of the cycle. I have been noting what I see to help better determine these cycle ends.

*A couple of facts to remember regarding new cycles..

If it's an upcycle...the first top is day 4-6

If it's a downcycle....the first top is day 1-3

I'm calling today day 1 of a downcycle.. Nice near 80% up vol day although we did not expand the range like I wanted to see. Therefore I would expect tomorrow to be up early and test today's highs before we sell off. If we close above today's highs then we could be delayed 1 day.

*Keep the following noted for this upcoming down cycle:

For a down cycle lasting 13 days, expect the first half low to be about day 6 or 7 and the second half low on the last day, day 13. From day 6 on, look for a small rally with ~2 of the next 3 days up, and then a decline to end the cycle on the last 3 days. It is the last days that offer the edge.

If they are to be down days as they were expected to be in the down cycle then one should be looking at a buying climax somewhere around day 10 or so. As the market is climaxing that day it will be a great opportunity to sell as OBV deteriorates. If OBV does not decline then look for a sell on weakness overnight or at the open. This is because the recent rally is over and the expectation and probability is high that the by the 13th day we will see a close below the mid cycle low close.

Now let's suppose I am correct and today was day 1 of down and this is in fact a 13 day cycle. Then day 13 of thge cycle would fall on....March 14th (Velo's major)

note the rules above for the completion of 13 day downs. This will be interesting.
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