Charts showing we are near a big rally in general markets in terms of time, but also a fair chance of a brutal wash-out in terms of price during the next few weeks:
Note ADX and MACD on Bullish Percent for S&P500, which could turn here (higher lows) or complete a run to overly bearish levels below 20:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200!c20!f][vc60][ill14!la12,26,9][J6581246,Y]&pref=G
The NASDAQ Summation Index could turn here or complete a 5th wave down:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[de][pc20][vc60]%3Ci%3E
DJTI looking ahead to a rally based on positive divergence (thanks George Cole and augieboo), but from what bottom?:
investorshub.com
All that said, I'm inclined to agree with Zeev, who says we wash-out before a violent rally. Here's what tips the balance:
stockcharts.com[l,a]daolyymy[df][pc13!c50!b200][vc60][ilb14!la12,26,9!lh14,3!lm12!ld20!le12,26,9
I do not see the 3rd wave down in the dollar as being complete, with the downchannel in MACD intact and slow sto's showing it hasn't bottomed quite yet. I see the $ as having just completed a iv in a move toward C (around 95). Dollar move down correlates with foreign capital leaving the market IMO. This should happen within a month, and there will be a big move in gold in concert.
Sticking with short positions a few more days, and holding portfolio of Canadian juniors steady until the dollar wash-out completes. By the way, my junior portfolio is off only 4.5% from the high, another telegraph to me that gold has another bump coming. |
