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Pastimes : QQQ & DIA - chat & chart

QQQ 623.23

+2.2%

Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jon Khymn who wrote (408)	2/28/2003 3:51:58 AM
From: Chris McConnel	Read Replies (1) of 795

(and more...) Pros May Play War Games, But Individuals Shouldn't By Eric Gillin Staff Reporter Despite the raging debate, most people take it as a given that war in Iraq is inevitable. Taken with almost the same level of certainty is that it will spur a big short-term rally. thestreet.com War Rally Yes, but From Lower Levels James "Rev Shark" De Porre 2/25/03 10:49 AM ET The panic selloff on the consumer confidence data is producing a pretty good oversold bounce but I'm watching for the bears to reload and take us back down. In my closing post on Friday, Feb. 14, I stated: "Nice call by the Kassmaster for a positive day, but if he wants to make another wager about whether or not we will hit a new low for the year within the next three weeks, I'll be happy to oblige. I'll let him set the stakes if he is so inclined. I don't think we have seen the low for the year, and I'm looking for another dip before we go to war." The DJIA has breached its closing low this morning and the S&P 500 is close as well. I think we'll crack those levels with a bit more emphasis shortly. I have been receiving way too much mail from folks who want to believe that Iraq is fully priced into this market. Even it is you have to wonder if the market has fully discounted this struggling economy. I think there will be a war-relief rally at some point but continue to look for it to develop from lower levels. Trying to Time the War By Scott Reamer Special to RealMoney.com 02/19/2003 02:47 PM EST So net/net, here's what we can reasonably assume: A war could start between Feb. 27 and March 6. How successful and quick it will be remains to be seen (I have no edge in discerning that.) This could very well cause some sort of rally in stocks that is ultimately fadeable once investors realize that second-half results aren't benefiting from a resolution to the Iraq issue and that the same old economic issues that worried investors before Iraq dominated the headlines aren't going away. The hard part for investors and traders at this stage is to determine if that rally has already started or will start from lower levels. That makes the next five to 10 trading days pretty important. Stay tuned. thestreet.com

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