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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: tuck who wrote (422)	2/28/2003 11:51:18 AM
From: keokalani'nui	Read Replies (1) of 897

Just for conversation... Medi is a good--nay, a great--short if you think FluMist fails. But there is solid organic growth absent FluMist and if it is approved I personally think Medi/Wyeth will be overwhelmed with demand in the first year. Can you imagine the response from a DTC campaign? I am not so sure still of idbe's comparable efficacy, but I am sure that they are way, way behind. Once FluMist is approved, and widely used, no one is going to care about the live attenuated virus issue since we will all be exposed to it anyway. Plus, efficacy will be the key--there is NO reason to snort FluInsure unless it's at least as good as FluMist. No reason to APPROVE it either once FluMist is out of the barn. Medi is justifiably more expensive than Biogen with its far better organic growth, far better near term pipeline (once approved), and possibly better mid-stage pipe. It is also doing what biogen never did, improving its franchise drug before someone else does--and if numax succeeds the rsv market opens up even more. All in recognition that Spec was dead right about Vertex and others.

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