Keith -- <<Selling mania is what I like to do and seems to be working all the time. Why not profit both ways?>>
I have nothing against selling out a long position, or shorting,
with a view to buying at lower prices, as a theological or
general issue.
It's just that shorting strikes me as much riskier, and I
got to be way more sure.
Well, in Dell's case, my conviction is that Dell will be, and
ought to be way higher, as in more than 50 % higher, within
2 years. Ok, its run up very fast. The whole world is seeing
a lot of visibility towards 2 year forward very strong results.
Some issue as to how long it can last.
In this environment, and given that success breads confidence
more than concern (perhaps another way of positing momentum),
is there not a very good chance that Dell is going to trade
off of not 12 mo. forward earings, but 18, or even 24? With
some discount for time and uncertainty, but basically?
So that is why I view the sell case for a very strong 3 year
plus grower as dangerous....
Why I want to see Dell really overvalued, before it strikes
me as a good idea to sell. Cause remember. It's my coviction
that if I go to sleep for 18 months and wake up then, I'll
be very happy with my Dell gains from here. Maybe I can
actively manage better. And maybe I can't.... |
