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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (224701)3/1/2003 9:17:04 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
I think you can have slowing growth due to higher commodity prices and it can take quite a long time for the marginal use of the commodities to subside and feedback to the prices.

supply / demand -- we've got supply problems right now in a stagnating economy -- imagine where the prices would be if the economy were growing.

I have no clue about oil -- I don't think it is all Iraq -- NG moves with oil as there is some switching at the margin -- but that doesn't explain NG at all and neither does just a bad season. I think at some pt it all comes back to interest rates -- keep them too low for too long and no-one can make a good decision. Some chronically overinvest in production and some chronically underinvest in production. Bad signals are given over very short periods of time and for longer term projects, too.

Rig counts ought to be going up for NG, IMO, even if there is going to be a huge slowdown, but they got smacked silly a year and a half ago.
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