ARAKIS: HIGH RISK OIL PLAY (AKSEF) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARAKIS: HIGH RISK OIL PLAY (AKSEF)

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6747)	7/29/1997 11:20:00 PM
From: Razorbak	of 9164

Zeev / Sudan Project Capex Forecast Here is Arakis' own internal forecast for both the Consortium's total capex budget and Arakis' share of the total capex budget... Consortium's Total Capex Budget (US$MM) --------------------------------------- Description 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total ----------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- Upstream 176 186 179 134 181 176 60 175 167 35 1,469 Downstream 8 592 299 22 47 0 0 0 0 0 968 ----------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- Total 184 778 478 156 228 176 60 175 167 35 2,437 Arakis' Share of the Capex Budget (US$MM) ----------------------------------------- Description 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total ----------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- Upstream 3 23 45 34 45 44 15 44 42 9 304 Downstream 0 94 75 6 12 0 0 0 0 0 187 ----------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- Total 3 117 120 40 57 44 15 44 42 9 491 These numbers represent the 250,000 bbl/day thruput case, which assumes third party shipments in 40% of the available pipeline capacity (or 100,000 bbl/day). As you can see, the total capex forecast has grown quite a bit since earlier estimates, and Arakis' share has grown proportionately. The downstream numbers are pretty firm, and reflect the best available information to date. These numbers will obviously need to be updated once pipeline engineering and construction bids are received. The upstream numbers are estimates based upon a realistic scenario for exploration drilling success. If the exploration program proves to be more successful than anticipated, then the capex required to fully explore and develop the discoveries will probably increase. Likewise, if the exploration program proves to be less successful than anticipated, then the capex required for the upstream portion of the project will probably be scaled back proportionately. Razor

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