11:17AM National Semi (NSM) 16.78 -0.35: JMP Securities downgrades Strong Buy to MKT OUTPERFORM. Target $20. After 35% gain over last couple of weeks, firm believes most of near term upside potential has been achieved.
11:14AM Texas Instruments (TXN) 16.65 -0.10: JMP Securities downgrades Mkt Outperform to MKT PERFORM. On longer-term competitive concerns, stock approaching firm's previous $18 target price
9:29AM Xilinx seen raising rev guidance slightly (XLNX) 23.03 +0.13: Previewing tomorrow's business update meeting, Lehman analyst Dan Niles believes XLNX will raise revenue growth forecast to a range of about 2-4% from forecast of 1-4%. Believes this will signal positive trends without raising the bar much.
9:00AM Semiconductor data below expectations -- UBS : According to UBS, January SIA results were below expectations. Says January kicked off the year with a below-expectation performance, despite some relatively good news coming from various Asian sources surrounding Chinese New Year. With the exception of Flash and SRAM, most other categories were down m/m in significant double digits. Blended IC ASPs were not as weak as expected. Firm is expecting February to show a mild sequential increase, followed by a stronger March.
10:08AM Technical Levels: So the index finally managed to close above that straight-line resistance at Nasdaq 1330. This is a level we initially staked out as supportway back on Technical_Levels_:1002">January 21st. Yet more recently, the 1330 level had been keeping a lid on follow through to that 7%, mid-February rally.
At any rate, frequent readers know when we reviewed the Nasdaq Friday, February 28th, we were somewhat more constructive regarding the near-term outlook. There were three primary reasons for our cautious optimism: 1) The index had managed to hold our 30-point consolidation range between Nasdaq 1300 and 1330, 2) The index' more recent price action had begun to favor the upper end of that 30-point range, and 3) We had that former break above the upper end of the Nasdaq's 10-day Bollinger bands, which we initially addressed two weeks ago, in the February 19th review.
In the chart above, you can see two of the levels from Friday's review matched up well with the actual intraday activity. As always, this is an intraday chart of Friday's trade activity, in which each bar on the chart represents the opening and closing levels for each five-minute time frame. While we had identified initial resistance at 1340, the index topped out at 1342 early on, and for the session's second half, favored overhead at 1339. Also note while 1330 had served as notable resistance for the better part of last week, it turned to serve as intraday support Friday.
Now this second chart served as the basis for our outlook Friday. Again, this is an hourly chart of the Nasdaq in which each bar on the chart represents the opening and closing levels for each sixty-minute time frame. Put another way, this chart provides a detailed view of the price action over the prior three weeks. There are several points of interest here, yet we'll touch on just one for our purposes today. Note on this hourly time frame, the 50-period simple moving average has just crossed above its 200-period simple moving average. This is conventionally viewed as a bullish near-term signal.
Those who have followed along, won't be surprised that the near to intermediate-term bias is bullish at this point. For the better part of last week, we reiterated the same general point -- the near to intermediate-term bias improves on a close above that 1330 level. The index managed that close above 1330 Friday, and for today's purposes, there is no need to complicate things any further.
Once again, getting straight to the technical levels -- these will account for the positive early bias. Keep in mind the immediate area to the upside is relatively cluttered, which will be something to watch over the near term. Look for initial resistance in the range of former congestion at 1347 to 1350, which is followed closely thereafter by the index' 50-day simple moving average at 1354.
If the index would successfully navigate those two areas, watch for subsequent overhead at 1361 which approximates a former straight-line area, and also matches up with a Fibonacci retracement. Looking out somewhat further, the index' 200-day simple moving average rests at 1370, which will be a key level for improving the longer-term bias.
To the downside, look for modest initial support at congestion around 1340, followed by a more significant floor at that straight-line area of 1330. Note the positive near-term bias would be neutralized by a failure to hold that 1330 area on a closing basis. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com
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