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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 77.95

+0.2%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (63186)	3/3/2003 1:32:37 PM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) of 77400

mindmeld, RE: Question for any remaining long term buy and holders left on this thread: what do you buy when sustained oil spikes and low consumer confidence virtually guarantee a recession? While I might not be a dyed in the wool buy and holder, I do have a longer time horizon than just about anyone else on this thread. The current price of oil is largely irrelevant. Oil is a commodity. It will certainly revert to its long term trend within 2 years. Consumer confidence is even a shorter term phenomena. Only 3 years ago the U of M index hit an all time high. That nicely coincided with the market top. Consumer confidence is certainly below trend, now, that is true. But that has nothing to do with where it will be a year from now. You have no idea and I have no idea. It is fruitless to guess where consumer confidence will be then, so why let a long term strategy be guided by that? For an equity investor with a long term time horizon, the only thing that should matter is the valuation of the company. While the macroeconomic environment is an important factor, it is a factor that no one can reliably predict. Best thing to do, then is just ignore the macro environment.

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