SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: yard_man who wrote (225039)3/3/2003 5:46:58 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
OK, enough of this

you know that i sort-of agree w/ you. that said, i still think that the 10-year sees a two-handle before the bond rally is over. credit market is BS in its pricing of RISK; i remain unsure that it is BS in its pricing of inflation.

i would also remind that the world ain't so static as the inflationists think; the 'credit' being created by the Fed is not MONEY; it is specious claims. as that 'credit' goes to money heaven these specious claims will one at a time go up in smoke. right now the Fed is creating new claims faster than the old ones are melting; my thesis has always been that they will at the end of the day be over-whelmed and the bathtub will start to drain faster than they can fill it (that farking Princeton maniac Bernanke's protestations notwithstanding). i still think at the end of the day that will cause final demand to weaken which will cause prices of goods to continue to fall and prices for services to prove to not be so sticky either. oil could go to $80 for all i know but i frankly doubt it since all indications are that the marginal cost of new production is no more than $30-35 bucks (i.e. REAL new production in deepwater, Alaska, Caspian) that would be tapped if the E&P's honestly believed that the oil price would stick up there.

whatever. we really won't know the 'answers' for a handful of years. but frankly i'd take my inflation / treasury / gold calls over that nutcase Mogambo Guru; he's getting kinda like Noland, just writing the same thing every week but changing the words a little.

Cheers
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News