Let's Start The War And Get It Over With Message Board

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Politics : Let's Start The War And Get It Over With

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Nov 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: sandintoes who wrote (501)	3/3/2003 9:58:13 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) of 808

This is an excellent summary of how to recognize a bubble: standishonline.com "When you hear it being said that we've entered a new era of permanent prosperity with prices of financial instruments reflecting that happy fact, you should take cover", says Galbraith. marxist.com If you get that into your bones, you'll be OK. However, one quick reading of a couple of articles is unlikely to do it. The books below will help. And I disagree with one thing he says: He says once you recognize the bubble, cut your exposure to the overpriced asset back to what you originally planned. Wrong. Dump ALL of them. You'll be able to but them back later much cheaper if you truly want them. Some good books: amazon.com amazon.com Seriously, if you want to avoid getting nailed by a bubble, you need to know what to look for. That late '90s bubbles had all the characteristics. It was just screaming BUBBLE! Another thing you need to know: NOBODY is any good at picking the top. If someone got it, it was probably luck. The only way to save yourself is get out when you realize you're in one. I got out almost 3 years to early. And had to sit there for that time watching the market continue up and people supposedly making money and wonder if I had royally screwed up. And the other thing is this: The knowledge of how to recognize one will probably never do you any good because you will almost certainly never see another one. They're rare. They're not just another bull market. They're that bull on over-the-legal-limit steroids.

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