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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: NOW who wrote (225136)3/4/2003 8:14:18 AM
From: Mike M2  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
TE, the issue is what will have a greater impact? the reduction of US demand for imported goods or the decline in the value of the US$. Look at the price of oil during the SE ASia meltdown and the Russia Debt default LTCM ( AG bails out his banker buddies ). The US has been the major consumer of surplus goods and I don't see any nation being able to assume our role over the next few years so I think reapers scenario is plausible. The mistake people make when examining Argentina and comparing to the US is to underestimate the impact of US demand on prices. In theory the US$ should tank and import prices should rise but who will buy the surplus goods? There is no doubt that a reduction of US demand will mitigate the impact of imported product price inflation created by a decline in the value of the US$. Mike
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