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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 159.42

-1.2%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (33080)	3/4/2003 11:41:41 AM
From: engineer	Read Replies (2) of 197270

man, you are hard to talk to. Mark this one so that you can re-read it alot and understand the mechanism. China had nothing. they wanted to get a system in place., they bought GSM on teh premise that the handsets were cheaper. In 1995-1997 they were cheaper. So they went with the system. but they soon realized two things (politically). First was they were shut out of hte domestic handset market for many reasons. Second, they were running out of capacity. In 1997-1998, they got sold on CDMA by the GSM crowd, but it was more like "wait for our newer CDMA and it will save you and allow you higher capacity and data". But the GSM crowd sold the CDMA stuff too well and Qualcomm had been selling it very well to them. The Chinese understand the technical benefits of CDMA and wanted that technology. this is why in DEc 1998, they issued the ultimatum that caused ERICY to buy the infra division of Q and to buy a licensce. It was "we will put in CDMA or nothing else for future systems". But you are trying to project something ontop of history which just isn't true. GSM still sells well since they can subsidize the handsets still into the country. But CDMA is the fastest selling there now. GSM is losing market share on a daily basis. GSM is still the highest volume in absolute numbers, but in terms of % of market share gained, they are falling fast. The reason is that the chinese can build their own handsets, fix the trade balance, learn and build knowledge for exporting handsets to the world. Within the next 3 years, I expect the China model to look like the Korean model, which is that they export as many handsets as they consume internally. When that happens, then the price of CDMa handsets will come down to a point where they are BELOW GSM handset pricing. Don't confuse history with statistics.

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