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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: JRI who wrote (225553)	3/5/2003 9:40:53 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (4) of 436258

you will not be surprised to hear this, but it is also the honest god's truth -- i am picking the Red Sox. people do not appreciate the upgrade to their offense by replacing Daubach/Sanchez/Henderson with Giambi/Todd Walker/Ortiz. plus Trot Nixon is IMO set to have a breakout year similar to what Garret Anderson did last year. the new guys will be good for 50-75 extra runs, and Nixon is another 10, IMO. of course, key will be Pedro's health or lack thereof. i also like the A's (Eric Chavez is my pick for MVP this year; frankly he was the best player on the team LAST year but Tejada inexplicably won the MVP) and the Twinkies. White Sox are hugely over-rated; Colon is gonna suck this year (check his peripheral stats from last year; he's in terrible decline) and Billy Koch's arm is gonna fall off; unfortunately Magglio Orodonez will continue to put up the best #s in the AL in obscurity. i think the Yankees are old and tired; their up-the-middle defense is terrible, and Jeter is in decline at a very young age, which is not a good sign. Matsui is the wild card there; i expect him to be very good (850-ish OPS) but frankly he COULD put up a 1000-ish OPS in which case the Yankees and Red Sox will go down to the final days. i don't like the Angels because other than Troy Glaus there's nobody in their everyday lineup who you can really expect to play BETTER than last year, and also their bullpen is highly unlikely to pitch as well as it did last year. i still think they'll win 85-90 games, but that won't be enough. in the NL i'm tempted to go out on a limb and pick the Cubs, 'cause i just LOVE that starting rotation; Mark Prior is the next 300 game winner and IMO will be better than Pedro in 2-3 years. but they are likely still a year away. so i'll go w/ the Astros, as Miller/Oswalt is nearly as good a 1-2 punch as Unit/Schilling and the offense with the addition of Jeff Kent will score a LOT. i'll take the Giants in the west (Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonso are under-appreciated pick-ups) and the Phillies (going away; by 10-12 games) in the east. Cheers

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