Actually, I never intended to explain why they haven't been bought out. I just intended to explain that it doesn't matter. They've certainly not had it as a goal, by all evidence I've encountered. Hence, not being bought out is neither unusual for a company with patents in an emerging field, nor surprising.
I'm SURE you are right in general, about the thoughts of the folks who bought in the early days. I'm also sure that, while working with MSFT prior to the market crash, and seeing what was emerging for the future with them and all the other great companies they are now working with, the management of Fonix never imagined in '99 or '00 the price would be here now, either. The level of share dilution required to get here was probably never imagined as a serious possibility.
But back to the subject. Nothing in this saga makes more sense than to recognize that these folks at Fonix just don't get contracts like they have without having had serious work in this field as a number one goal, IMO. Your speculative "chump change" buy would involve overseeing an unproven technology in a vast sea of competitors(even if MSFT found Fonx, and they did, to have the best stuff to throw at XBOX), which may not be desireable. MSFT's current contract with Fonix expires with the next version of XBOX, and MSFT can then choose among the competitors once again. Perhaps you are beginning to see the advantage to MSFT in not throwing too much money at emerging applications not well established as a practical accepted successful solution to date. XBOX itself, deserved all the money given it, as the gaming industry IS itself well established. Speech technology for XBOX doesn't deserve much direct investment, as speech command and control is not a well established market success within the gaming industry, and what the future for it holds is therefore uncertain.
When the next XBOX arrives, it may employ a speech solution from someone else. Someday, we might carry on conversations with XBOX's as though with real human beings, LOL, but who the heck knows if Fonix will be involved then, eh? For now, in TTS/ASR Fonix seems to have a couple of the most workable and about to be widely employed(for the first time) versions of this technology around. I'm sure when the dust in this industry settles lots more, Microsoft might buy more speech technology from someone, one way or the other.
All I know to honestly say about how the price got so low at a time like this(now having unprecedented great customers/partners/developers and new products on the way), is that it is a confluence of events(you can take it from there, I'm sure). What is, is, and that's all. No mysteries, IMO, save the future.
Dan B |
