Slider, your optimism regarding USD and markets in general is well stated, and I am sure a view shared with the main-stream.
But you can't label all those who see severe structural problems with the US dollar, monetary and fiscal problems, and their ultimate effect on Gold as kooks or hypsters. You stated in an earlier post that Gold will never be allowed to replace fiat. I agree, but that implies price control. Many have thought for a very long time, that gold is not freely traded.
You must have read Warren Buffett's latest pessimistic outlook and assessment of stocks and the derivative game. You wouldn't label him a kook.
You say that the USD weakness is "already anticipated and priced into present Gold prices". You also write "Don't you think that future USD weakness from the Fed's reflation is already anticipated and priced into present Gold prices ?" So, that is anticipated, yet in the next paragraph, you mention that there is a significant "WAR/TERRORISM" premium now built into the price of gold. How come, the market can "anticipate" one but not the other?
I have always smiled when people say the market is like some kind of all knowing beast, continuously anticipating and pricing now according to future events. What a crock. If that was the case, gold's price today should represent its value after war. And bubbles would never occur, and these large swings now common place couldn't happen.
You say: "Lenders over the last 6 mos have dramatically tightened credit. Consumer finance has tightened to levels unseen over the last 10-15 years in many market niches."
I am interested in the above statement as I may have to re-think my position. Could you give some reference or specifics regarding the dramatically tightened credit regime?
This will surely lead to a slow-down of business, don't you think?
You are a very good writer, and have made some clear projections and assumptions. These topics are important, because they are at the foundation of daily market movements and our economic well being. Perhaps we can re-visit these questions again some time in the future.
Phil |
