["when gold is near #400 next, you will eat your words / jw"]
...Tokyo-JimWillie, I thought you had me on ignore ?
When/if Gold reaches $400 - it may, or may not make you, me, or anyone else any money.
$400 Gold may be a better shorting opp, than a long opp anyway....$390 was - now wasn't it >>>VBG<<< !?!?!?
Those already out - have the profits locked away.
They can go long on a breakout.
They can go short on a breakout.
They can short into weakness momenteum.
They can re-enter long when/if their buy points are reached on weakness (without having already lost 20-30 upside points).
Or, they can continue to just stay out....and wait for the Geopolitical, Economic & Currency catalysts to play out some more...that's what I'm basically doing.
- I bought "zero cost" LEAPS & outlying, out of the money CALLS with a portion of the profits taken from each trading range....I'm still retaining a small portion of those, but am short CEF and 90ish% Cash right here, right now.
- I wouldn't hesitate to re-enter on a moments notice and trade goldstocks long on an event-driven catalyst...nor would I hesitate at a moments notice to step in and broadly short goldstocks on an event-driven catalyst.
...merely depends on whether the market is correctly, or incorrectly assessing the reason for the move and then whether the event they are reacting to, is fundamentally a short term, or longterm catalyst etc.
$357 Gold today = HUI 128
Gold just ran to $390 and the HUI rolled over "AGAIN" at 150.
For everyone here who owns/trades & invests in Gold stocks - they did NOT benefit from $390 Gold - so why would another $10 at $400 matter JW ?
The stocks have disconnected from POG, because "FOR NOW" they see the move in POG as anomalous to the bullion market and realize that the move was an over-bought WAR/TERRORISM HEDGE - nothing more, nothing less.
Every positive headline of Saddam's inceasing cooperation, or positive comments from the UN Inspectors, or negative anti-US commentary from France, Germany, or Russia - led to Gold selling off...and you people still question whether the move in POG of late was "WAR/HEDGE" related ?
I honestly do not mean to be rude and I'm sorry, but anyone who still questions this - is an absolute imbecile - period.
The Gold Up-Cycle is not in it's infancy here, it is basically 3 years old...Gold is no longer a secret here people, it's been in the headlines, it's spoken about by the proverbial shoehsine boys, all the con-job/hype scams on gold are all over the internet, the radio and in print, Gold Funds are atop all the Leader Boards...now it's about:
1. Risk to reward.
2. Time value of money.
3. Lost Opportunity Cost.
4. WARNING SIGNS - ie: stocks lead the commodity on the way up & the way down.
- WHAT did the stocks just do ?
...they disconnected from the commodity (POG) going to new, higher-highs....NOT a good sign.
- WHERE did they disconnect ?
...at the same damn DOUBLE TOP level of HUI 150/155 ..........NOT a good sign.
Anyone who sold into the May 2002 HUI Rally and parked the proceeds in a damn passbook savings account at 1% is now ahead of anyone here who had bought & held.
1 Year of DEADMONEY...actually not even "dead" money, as the HUI is now down 15% from last May.
For the 113th time:
This is NOT a buy & hold sector; never has been & never will be.
Those who traded the slow moving, very easy target, Gift-Horse/Silver Platter pullbacks in July, Aug & Oct 2002 - got a very HIGH REWARD-LOW RISK- 2nd bite at the HUI 95 to 155 Apple.
Those who pocketed any significant portion of that 60 point Trading Range Play; after exiting last May/June...have $425, maybe even $450 GOLD and HUI 200ish already covered and safely tucked away in the bank.
That WAS the Big & Easy Money portion of the Gold Cycle.
The High Reward/Low Risk money from THIS cycle is gone...."for now".
...Yes Elvis WAS wearing "yellow" shades, but he has now left the building.
JW - WHY would $400 Gold hold any significent interest for anyone who saw this recent part of the cycle for what it was ?
ie: a 2ND PROFIT TAKING/EXIT OPPORTUNITY !
...that saw sector risk volatility ramp & reward opportunity diminish proportionately.
The Commercials were and are still strongly SHORT GOLD.
The Stocks have rolled over in a DOUBLE TOP.
The Stocks completely DISCONNECTED from the underlying commodity's move to new higher-highs.
The smart thing to ALREADY have done, is to have taken the money off the table & to now sit back....and let some of the Geopolitical & Economic catalysts play themselves out a little bit...let OTHERS shoulder the RISK and bank the REWARDS.
...aint no Gold-Train leaving the station that anyone isn't going to be able to catch.
For NOW, the risk is once again with - greed....ie: being a HOG vs being a PIG and staying in too long. |
