["Wow. And just think, not so long ago you had this to say"]
..habitrail;
One should always have a longterm view...and appreciate where the stocks/commodities can "potentially" go to the upside on the possibilities.
One should never become married to either that view, or the stocks/commodity.
Trading just like geopolitics, economics, currencies and life...is DYNAMIC - not STATIC.
Gold very well could go to $500...still could - I havent said it could not, or would not....merely that it is looking less likely...AND - that it is NOT going there anytime in the near future...and most importantly, that we just had another no-brainer Profit-Taking/EXIT opp...and that being OUT was the Risk to Reward place to be.
I had doubts that Bush would be allowed to do what he's going to do...(go to War & seize the Oil Fields) I no longer have any doubts.
And that potential " historic misallocation of capital" - that I mentioned, may NOW be surprisingly soaked up by free-flowing Cheap Oil...which along with Geopolitical Stability - is the primary catalyst needed to jump-start the Global Economies...and Mr Bush is going to deliver both - imho.
I also had doubts in the ability of the consumer to hang in there as long as they have, I had doubts that the Finance Sector would clean up their act - as quickly as they have...and they have.
I also had doubts that the Fed would do some of the things they have.
I think America, the USD, the US Economy and American Resolve is stronger than many think...
And as far as Goldstocks are concerned - I think that the time once again has arrived to where being a PIG that get's Fat, is a lot wiser than being a HOG that once again...as always, gets slaughtered.
DOW 5000 is "fair value" imho...but, if we establish control in Iraq quickly, if we continue to capture key Al Qaeda Leaders like we've been doing...and if we eventually capture Bin Laden... then when, not if; Oil flows freely and cheaply once again... the World is poised for an upturn a little sooner and a little stronger; than many think.
I haven't gone long the broad market yet...but, I think the time to do so, is going to come quicker and at a higher level than I previously thought.
I also think that we are not going to have a speculative blow off top in Goldstocks - as I think Mr Bush and America are going to rise to the occassion once again & lead the world to a new period of peace AND prosperity.
I am never, ever unwilling to turn on a dime...never have been, never will be.
It amazes me, that so many people are so inflexible in their thinking and their trading.
While the concept of:
"Married for Life, untill Death do us part"
...is fine for people; it doesn't quite work so well with investment strategy, or in trading stocks.....long 'em, them short 'em and love 'em & then leave 'em....actually, works just fine with stocks...
For now...you guys are holding the "bag" - I've got the GOLD and it's safely tucked away in the cash register.
...now, I may give you back the Gold once again... in exchange for the "bag"...but, bet your ass that when the music ultimately stops...and in cyclicals it always does...that you'll have the "bag" and I'll be long gone...with the gold.
Ciao` |
