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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: blankmind who wrote (4349)7/30/1997 9:14:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005   of 9285
 
Blankmid and all,
I never knew I would draw such an emotional reaction to APM as a short. First, addressing the book value part - in electronic hadware business bookvalue is very iffy mainly because a) plant and equipment depreciation is much much greater than inflation rate. b) many a times finished goods inventories end-up baing worthless. If APM book value is 17, it is unwise to have a target of 15 - agreed. Perhaps a $20 target would be prudent. Forward PE really suggests that the stock is compelling buy, if they can make that much money. Based on the press releases the company didn't sound that optimistic. Or did they?
As I said earlier on other threads, APM reminds me of ISSI in Feb-April of 96. How do I know? I got burned on ISSI back then - fooled by low current PE and even lower "forward PE" story. FYI,
exchange2000.com

One more thing, I did not short APM, I just bought Puts - Sept 30's. Perhaps I should have bought October's!
As always, I reserve the right to be wrong.

-Mohan
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