From Briefing.com: From Briefing.com: INTC Intel gives color on visibility/business conditions (16.02 -0.68) -- Update -- On call, INTC says its visibility for both Q4 (Dec) and Q1 (Jan) was 'at the better end of seasonalty, but still within seasonality norms'... INTC adds that it hasn't seen anything yet to call a corporate recovery.
INTC Intel reaffirms 2003 gross margin and capex guidance (16.03 -0.67) -- Update -- On call, INTC reiterates it expects FY03 (Dec) gross margins to be approximately 51%, plus or minus a few points, capex spending to be $3.76 bln, plus or minus $200 mln, and research & development to be about $4 bln.
4:30PM Intel sees margins below midpoint of range (INTC) 16.70 -0.28: -- Update -- Intel says that its business is trending below expectations due to lower than anticipated flash memory sales. Co sees gross margin percentage slightly below the midpoint of the range of 50%, plus or minus a couple of points, due to higher than expected flash inventory reserves... Stock now trading at $15.97, down 4.4%.
4:20PM INTC falls $0.60 in reaction to guidance :
4:16PM Intel sees revs $6.6 - $6.8 bln; consensus is $6.75 bln (INTC) 16.70 -0.28: Company's prior guidance range was $6.5 - $7.0 bln -- says communication biz trending below views; architecture ops trending above views.
4:23PM Semi Equip names slide with Intel: NVLS -2%, AMAT -1.5%, KLAC -1% :
3:22PM Intel provides mid-quarter update after close (INTC) 16.66 -0.32: Intel reports its mid-quarter update today after the close to give analysts insights on the progression of the quarter. In reviewing several analyst previews, consensus seems to be INTC guiding to the high end of its guidance for $6.5 bln-$7.0 bln with some undertones of seasonality. This call is usually very general and does not give very product specific guidance.
2:44PM Rambus -- Climbing the Court House steps (RMBS) 13.57 -0.24: Sterling Research remains positive on RMBS following decision by judge yesterday to give co its day in court. What happens in the next round? Sterling believes that Rambus may lose the FTC complaint. In that case, the appeals process will likely begin in June. Firm believes co has a better chance of winning in that venue, noting that co has already won at the Federal Court level; believes that precedence of prior court victory provides co a stronger than avg chance of success. If co prevails with either the FTC complaint or the appeal, the potential upside for co is extreme. RMBS stands to lose 1/3 of revs if they lose both rounds. While co would survive, stock might fall to a fraction of its present value.
1:36PM National Semi pushes to fresh highs during conference call (NSM) 16.22 +0.05: -- Update -- NSM holding its quarterly conference call right now. Management stated fab utlization projected to be above 70% for the next quarter. Increased utilization rates are a good sign for semi companies. Co also stated that PC market showed stronger than typical seasonal trend for the qtr.
12:16PM National Semi matches EPS consensus (NSM) 15.85 -0.32, halted: -- Update -- Reports a Q3 loss excluding items of $0.03, in line with the Multex consensus of -$0.03. Sales rose 9.4% to $404.3 mln (consensus $411.1 mln). For Q4, co sees revs of $420-$432 mln (consensus $433 mln).
1:16PM Legg Mason on the Microtune, Broadcom patent case : Legg Mason's morning note gives some background regarding today's opening arguments in TUNE's patent infringement case against BRCM; at issue is TUNE's Silicon Tuner product, and firm believes that a positive outcome of this trial is TUNE's only near-term opportunity for a quick recovery; yet if BRCM loses the suit, it will be more of a PR issue than an actual impact to earnings. On the other hand, if BRCM wins the suit, firm doesn't expect to make any material changes to their ests since BRCM's cable modem and set-top box mkt share is predicated on the strength of its demodulator system and not on the promise of bundling a tuner.
8:23AM Microsemi upgraded at CIBC (MSCC) 8.20: CIBC upgrades to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform, citing favorable trends in its military and medical units; checks reveal military/aero/satellite segment benefiting from improved pricing and ramping volumes, and the recent increases in Medicare coverage for ICDs could double the addressable ICD market (co is a primary supplier to all 3 ICD manufacturers); raises 2003 est to $0.15 from $0.10 and 2004 to $0.33 from $0.28. Target is $12.
7:53AM McDATA sees Q1 at high end of guidance (MCDT) 8.35: Co expects Q1 results to post at the high end of the $92-$97 mln revenue range and $0.02-$0.04 pro forma EPS. Multex consensus for the qtr is $95.46 mln and $0.03.
7:31AM ATI Technologies reports new design wins (ATYT) 4.08: ATI Technologies announced its MOBILITY RADEON products receiving 11 new designs with Dell, IBM, Fujitsu, Sony, NEC, ACER, and Voodoo.
3:41PM Chart Watch -- S&P 500 : More of the same for this market average. While today's bias has been negative, the index has thus far merely pushed back toward the lower end of the range that has dominated for the last few weeks. A look at the chart below of the index from a weekly perspective shows that despite calls that 1) the bear market is over and 2) Armageddon is upon us, it has also vacillated within a broad but well defined trading range between roughly 950 and 770 for the last nine months.
The next chart below highlights the technical levels of interest from a daily view that should be monitored. During a short term consolidation in a late January update we mentioned the previous trading range bottom near 867/869 that needed to be cleared. It wasn't and the breakout of the range was extended to 806 (close to the 78.6% retracement at 808). More recently we have focused in on the recovery high near 852 which has stymied the action during the latest consolidation.
The intervening spike bottom low between the tests of resistance of 852 from Feb 25 was at 818. So now we have framed the longer term (950, 770) and short/intermediate term levels (resistances: 852, 870-- supports: 818, 808/806) of interest. As far as our take on the action, while we obviously can't rule out an extension of the short term consolidation, without follow through beyond the well defined resistances (watch 20 day ema at 838 on closing basis), must continue to favor the dominant negative bias. Send comments, questions or suggestions to -- Jim Schroeder, Briefing.com
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