Sharp,
I know you've shown an interest in gold. I've just completed studying some charts and reading some analysis from John Murphy, a well known technical analyst. (Murphy btw, is bullish gold stocks longer term, but is growing more and more cautious.)
The HUI is at a very critical point in its trend. Over the past couple of years, the HUI "HAS NOT" closed below the 50 "week" moving average. The longer term these support levels are, the more important they become when breached.
The HUI is now approaching its 50 week moving average, which is currently at 125 and change. This is where you'd expect the HUI to bounce, if the fundamentals support it. It has bounced off this level repeatedly throughout the last couple of years.
If the HUI closes below this support level, it is a "critical" sell signal, in my opinion. To be safe, I would say anything 3-4% below this support level is a definite "SELL!"
During the great tech bubble, most people ignored the ramifications of their stocks closing under long term support levels. In studying thousands of charts over the last couple of years, the one thing they had in common was that two year support levels being breached was a significant clue to further weakness.
I know, that you know, what you are doing. I thought I would pass along another perspective from a technical point of view.
If the HUI holds support and moves up from here, GLG and HL seem to have been the best performers over the last couple of years, from a technical point of view, according to Murphy.
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