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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: Murrey Walker who wrote (57261)3/6/2003 10:35:58 PM
From: Dealer  Read Replies (1) of 65232
 
FWIW: This is from a paid service that I subscribe to. One persons opinion:

The end game of the Iraq situation seems to be
approaching, due to the rapidly closing weather window
for military action and a series of U.N. reports and
votes over the next 10 days. I'm sending you this
Flash Bulletin because I want you to suspend all stop
alerts for the time being. Here's why.

Negative sentiment is building rapidly, which usually
means everyone who wants to sell has sold and is
waiting on the sidelines. Volume right now is low,
with the ratio of average volume for the last four
months divided by average volume for the last 12
months at its lowest level since 1994. That means
volume has deviated below its recent average by the
greatest extent in eight years. Half of all trading
is computerized programs, and much of the rest comes
from hedge funds and daytraders trying to scalp
nickels and dimes. Simply put, the only action right
now is from very short-term players who run the risk
of getting burned in this uncertain market.

What can we do in this situation? The best thing is
to shift our focus out to OUR holding period and play
OUR game, not theirs. Any stocks that hit my alerts
after today we almost certainly would re-buy in a
matter of days or a couple of weeks. I am not saying
stocks can't go lower or even have a panic drop, but I
think it would reverse quickly and be very difficult
to time both the sell and the buy well enough to add
value to your portfolio. That's why we want to
suspend all stop alerts at the moment.

In fact, because the market is likely to bounce
quickly when the Iraq situation gets settled one way
or another (either going to war or postponing it), I
expect our next move to be buying stocks. I'll be
sure to be in touch with you through Flash Bulletins
and the hotline to tell you which technology stocks to
buy first.
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