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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: kollmhn who wrote (19907)3/7/2003 3:47:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) of 206114
 
Hoff (edit) why does it take so long to get paid from PEMEX. Did they address this issue at the RJ conf?

>> Horizon also noted that its anticipated collection of claims from Pemex will be delayed beyond the previously anticipated first quarter collection. Work has continued on assembling the claims in accordance with legal and contractual requirements and in a form acceptable to Pemex. Horizon now expects to formally submit these claims throughout the second quarter of 2003, with collections possible by the end of the third quarter of 2003. <<

My biggest concerns are:

1) What if the 2nd half upturn in spending doesn't materialize?

2) What if PEMEX further delays payments? Will HOFF be forced to issue a secondary at fire-sale prices to pay off debt coming due.

3) If debt truely does become an issue what assets, if any could they sell and what prices would they get?

There is value here, but I still consider this somewhat speculative (probably in the neighborhood of MIR imho). I put their odds of surviving better than 50/50 and upside should be quite good if they can avoid a secondary at these levels. But by no means is it a given and post earnings next week it could take another tumble.

I did buy some at 3.05 and 3.06. Will wait a few days or maybe till after earnings to buy more.
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