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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: SockpuppetDoug who wrote (68095)	3/7/2003 5:39:39 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) of 209892

My count puts that cycle into the area of the 24th of March. You have to remember, that's a pretty big cycle too, 78.5 weeks, so there can easily be a variation where it can translate left or right by a week or so What I am saying here is this... the Bradley lows and the 54TD cycle lows come in on or around next Thursday the 13th....BUT they don't necessarily have to be signifigantly Lower lows...or crash lows. I don't think the FED will let that happen. Both of those cycles have been very accurate, as well as the 378 TD cycle....but IF the 378 TD cycle lows come in early anywhere around the FOMC date of the 18th to 21st (Triple Witch), we could be marking some sort of I/T low there at that time... where we get a decent rally to oversold conditions the 1st couple weeks in April. The Maxpain theory lends support to that also as QQQ would want to be in the 25 area. I say, why does 25 have to be a high...it could be a LOW according to MANY important cycles, not to mention recent mkt action and program trading stats...COT etc. ***I think it's VERY important to the current administration that the perception of a somewhat STABLE market and Economy is maintained while we are on the brink of war. There is NO way in my mind that the FED and the Bush Administration wants this market to TANK with the rest of the world markets here. Of course this is only temporary, but recent Open Market Desk and repo activities lend creedence to this scenario, and the HUGE anomoly of the current extended stint of program trading does too. I don't think we get our break of the October lows until later this Spring or Summer during the less seasonally favorable time of the year for equities... unless the War or Terror really goes badly. fwiw I'm not sure that will be the case initially... and also, finally in edit, it's VERY important to realize that just because a cycle has been reliable and has worked well in the past doesn't mean for a minute that it can't miss a turn. That kind of stuff happens all the time. These cycles have to be used as a supplement to other forms of technical and fundamental analysis. That's very important imo.

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