Steve,
I think you're placing too many restrictions on your outlook for MSFT. As I mentioned in my previous message to you, buying weakness today would be the way to play it if you're looking short term, (a day or two.)
I don't think anything is a buy, based on the condition of the market. I think the smart play is to wait and see what happens with the geo-political situation in the next week or two. It's coming close to put up or shut up time for Bush. He can't stretch this "get Sadamn" strategy another 3-6 months. We are going to have to do something soon, or fuhgeddaboutit. Either scenario will present an opportunity for the market to react positively. That's where a swing trade with MSFT should pay off. A swing trade could turn into an intermediate term trade, but I won't know about that until the time comes.
>>> aren't you taking a chance of missing the upside if it turns <<<
I hope you don't take this the wrong way. One of the things we must do if we are to mature as an investor or trader, is to stop worrying about missing the upside in a stock. Worrying about missing upside potential is a strategy that is used by those who don't have consistent profits. It is a strategy designed for those who won't succeed over the long term.
When we bring emotion into our business making decisions, we set ourselves up to lose. Worrying about missing upside involves emotion. If a stock moves without me, so be it. I trade on my terms, not the market's. I will respect what the market is saying, but I will not chase returns. Until we clear up a lot of the uncertainty surrounding Iraq, I wouldn't be buying MSFT here. But, that's just my opinion.
dabum |
