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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: loantech who wrote (8438)	3/8/2003 11:14:40 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) of 39344

Coxe had a rather insightful version of my "GOD" (Gold, oil/gas, defense/security play: see my prior posts especially of last month). () He feels market participants are getting too cute and coy about these plays collapsing after BOB (bombs over Badgdad). In effect how can they "collapse" given that they never priced a war into their valuation structures to begin with (). He refuted the notion of "war premium", said there really is none (has been my point). Said most of the risk premium has been removed from GOD (and for the sake of where I'm going here, this acronym has nothing to do with my religious beliefs: agnostic). Felt (which I agree with) that you need to be positioned BEFORE BOB, that if anything traps will be laid for those buying the conventional names (tech, consumers, financials) upon a war rally. I feel most are frozen in place like deer in the headlights, and at the moment alot of wealth is going to change hands. () I'm going to post a snapshot of the GOD portfolio I personally hold later today here, so stay tuned if this interests you. (**) E&P energy companies still priced at about 4 1/2 cash flow even with $5 natural gas (two bucks below today's level). Drillers are barely above NAV, with huge shortages developing. Many good defense names are barely above book value. See Research Capital report concerning so called "war premium" and gold stocks. Message 18672387

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