Ok, you may not want to try this at home, but here's my own personal current "GOD" portfolio to glean some ideas from. I handle my own account, and accounts for about ten friends and family members. The accounts range from $50k up to several million, but they are all blended in close to this manner. Of course a 100K account might only have 12-14 names. The B, SH, H next to the names indicate my opinion (as of 3-7-03) on the holding irrespective of portfolio balancing and tax considerations. On occasion, I may indicate B (22), or buy to this limit, or S (50), sell at this target. Check current price yourself of course. Things change, so this is just a snapshot.
Gold and metals: 39%
Note that the lopsided positions in WTZ and AAS are largely a result of large gains, that are still short term. Additionally I had large cap gains in 2002 that forced me to defer gains into the current tax year. If I was in a long term mode, I would balance this out some, reducing the exposure from 12% of total portfolio each to maybe 4-5% (no reflection on the play at all, balance). I recently sold my entire MFL position (14% of total portfolio) long term for a 700% gain. YMC.u bought at 20, was sold this year for 1.18, CBD bought at .77, sold @ 3.03, CTQ bought @ .62, sold @ .93, GNG, bought @ .42, sold for loss @ .30. MNP bought @ .10, sold @ .25, IMR bought @ .46, sold @ .72. ELD was sold for 500% gain last year during the mini-boom, same for NGT (400% gain ), but all 25 cent wts were exercised, and was aggressively in the market buying NGT @ .25 pre-split, and AAS @ .30. Price shown for AAS is post split including wts I will be soon exercising. There were other reconfigurations, but this is end result. Trying to focus on fewer names more in the sweet spot I spoke about before. Will add MNG at 1.05 and a buck.
WTZ 12.3% first number given is cost basis: US 46 cents, from PP and wts exercise, SH
AGI 12.0%: Cdn .66, SH
GBU 2.8%, $3.51 B($3.60)
BGI 2.6% .19 H event driven, ASL royalty, will wait until mid-April, little tired of mgt, been in a long time, where's the beef?
MOY 2.1% .58 B (.80)
CQR 1.8% .24 B (.29)
ARQ 1.8% .51 B (.60)
WHT 1.5% US .845 B (.90) will add more at .82 or lower
GBGLF 0.8% US .46 B (.98) will add more at .98 or lower
IVN 0.6% 3.06 B (3.15) will double position at 3.00 area, and again on any swoons.
SUL 0.8% .23 SH
MAN 0.7% .67 SH
Energy 38%
ECA 3.2% 27.38 SH
BR 3.2% 38.32 SH
GSF 3.0% 21.59 B (22.50)
APA 2.8% 53.70 H (was 5.6%, sold half Friday at 65.94)
RIG 3.1% 21.31 B (22.75)
RDC 2.7% 20.35 B (20.50)
DO 2.4% 20.58 B (21.50)
NOI 2.2% 19.61 SH
OEI 2.3% 18.08 B (20.00) to DVN
PXD 2.2% 23.08 SH
PDE 1.9% 13.40 B (14.00)
NBR 1.7% 33.40 SH
PBR 1.5% 13.65 B (14.00)
PEL.TO 1.5% 2.92 Cdn, bought last year SH
REM 1.3% 14.73 H (target 21.00)
NR 0.9% 4.16 SH
DNR 0.8% 10.57 B (11.00)
CHK 0.6% 8.02 B (8.25) this is a good one, kicking myself for not buying more when had the opening two weeks ago.
Naked put writes:
APC March 42.5 @ 2.10
APC March 45 @ 1.05: premium here is 0.2% of portfolio value (DO NOT GET OVEREXPOSED TO A NAKED PUT TRADE, make sure you understand it's use). Strategy is to take (have put to me)stock at 45.00 or under. Or if premium is pocketed, I will rewrite naked April 45's, APC currently 45.55. I typically write naked puts for about 0.5-1.0% (of premium collected; means for every $million portfolio value, put premiums are 5-10K at one time) of my port. value nearly every month. 90% expire worthless so it's a great enhancement. I am willing to own the stock if put, I almost never close out if in the money. You must also have rock bottom commission cost for these strategies to work. I almost never buy options.
Defense 4%: Looks light as it's a brand new play, only a few weeks in the making. Also includes homeland security. Focus is on mid tiers, as large names are exposed to aerospace and pension problems. Few comments here:
Subject 53711
Looking at the chart, one would think we were at peace:
finance.yahoo.com^DFX&d=c&t=2y&l=on&z=b&q=l
INVN 1.2% 20.36 B (21.00)
HRLY 1.0% 14.01 B (14.25)
DRS 0.9% 23.24 B (23.50)
AVAN 1.0% .99 B (1.06) also considered a biotech (vaccines)
Targets: IDNX (3.20), ISSX (put write under 10.45)
Naked put writes for about 0.2% of port.
LLL March 35 @ 1.20
DRS March 22.5 @ 1.20
INVN March 20 @ 1.50
Short sales: 5%, was higher in Jan.
CFC 2.2% 51.15 OK to short
RDN 1.4% 41.11 H
MTG 0.5% 45.53 H
I recently used the following for shorts, and covered;
GS sold 73.15, bot 64.59
MBI sold 46.29, bot 35.75
MER sold 45.52, bot 35.75
Special situations 10%: I have ramped this up to as high as 25% especially during the October low: see mutha thread in real time.
Subject 53273
This was actually the best trade I've had in the last six months. I look for a very low Rydex Ursa ratio (such as now), confirmed by fairly high VIX (towards 50: now 37, too low), and put call ratios running close to 1.0 (not there)on a ten day average. Some of the art of tying to call a bear market rally is sort of sixth sense (also known as "luck"). Readings now do suggest that a reflex rally on BOB may occur, but by and large I don't see it as tradable like the July- Sept, and Oct-Dec. move.
Nevertheless I have some holdings in very cheap, mostly net net )or near) value situations that offer good odds. The bear market has definitely created pockets (bifurcated market) of excellent value and prospects. What do I look for? ATVI illustrates it. They are a leader in a hot field (gaming). The poor XMAS news is out, the stock has been trashed. I'm in (1.2% @ 13.80), with March 15 covered calls written at .70. I hope it doesn't get called actually. At 13.80 Mkt cap was 914m, cash was 614m= EV of 300m, and this is a solidly profitable company. Short sellers have piled into this one: 15.8% of float. There has been substantial insider buying, and the co. has a $350m stock buyback THAT THEY ARE ACTUALLY EXECUTING. Finally look at that bullish diverging MacD and basing action, nice!.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[p][vc60][iUa12,26,9]&pref=G
L 1.3% 5.30 adjusted for call writes, I just do this every month, April 10 @ .35, badda beem badda boom: H
SIRI 1.6% .54 N (up to .60)
XMSR 1.2% 3.71 adjusted for call writes (obviously I think satellite radio will be a big success). SH
COBR 1.0% 7.15 B (7.00)
OPWV 0.9% .75 wrote April 5 calls @ .50, gonna get basis down to a quarter. SH
INFS 0.7% 5.62 B (5.75)
GXY 0.2% 1.96 SH, sold higher basis for tax loss Dec.
CRUS 0.6% 1.77 adjusted for call writes. March 2.5 calls written @ .30 SH
CPST 0.3% .86 SH
ARMHY 0.3% 1.96 SH
Biotech 5%
ELN 1.5% 2.39 B (3.35) wrote April 5 call @ .30
wrote naked puts April 2.5 2 .25 for about 0.1%
HGSI 0.9% 8.71 (adjusted prior call writes)
B (7.00)
MLNM 0.8% (adjusted for call writes) 8.12 B (7.00), wrote April 7.5 calls @ .55
ISIS 0.8% 7.01 B (5.00) adjusted for call writes B (5.00)
IDEV 0.6% 1.45 SH
LGND 0.6% 5.29 adjusted for call write, B (5.00)
IMGN 0.3% 1.83 adjusted for call write SH |
