Russ and all,
Timing is a key issue here IMO. I have some words of caution to lurkers out there.
Granted, your PF is well thought-out, and my observation is that your fundamental strategy is being positioned in a good value play before it takes off, and wait for the rise. That is my MO, too. However, lurkers who may read your post and say to themselves, "I should do that," here is a thought to consider ...
Not everyone can wait out the lows like Russ can. Once the next mini-bounce in the general market ends, there is a good chance we will see a downdraft. Folks like Zeev Hed and Puplava see this as a high probability, and so do I. The good news is, if it comes to pass, it will be a baby-and-bathwater situation. Great deals on drillers and security companies may become ridiculous give-aways to buyers with cash. The bad news is that all stocks, including PMs, are just stocks in a real downdraft, and they all get sold. We are clearly in a bear, and have yet to see true PANIC. It is overdue, it is coming, and IMHO the market panics sometime year. Be careful out there if you can't wait it out a year or two, like Russ can (in biotechs?).
For you Russ and most of the posters here, this caution is an "of course" type statement, but for some lurkers it may not be so. To paraphrase Bill Fleckenstein, you never know when life's margin calls can come (medical, etc.), and jumping into these good deals right now and not being able to wait through a further pull-back (one year?) for them to pan-out could be financially devastating.
Buy some value plays now, but as VT says, keep some powder dry in case the deals get better. You'll still make money if you buy early in a clear market upturn.
I am with you 100% on strategy, Russ, but want to caution some lurkers that they need to think it through a bit before employing it carte blanche in their case.
Still waiting on the Canadian gas trusts in my IRA to rise significantly 1 year after buying (though dividends have been great),
Your most grateful thread participant,
crusty |
