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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (19971)3/9/2003 10:31:48 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) of 206110
 
No natural gas crisis -

Well, NG prices will come down from $9.00 Nymex and >> $10 spot to more like $6.00 Nymex and around $5.00 - $8.00 spot.

I don't see anything in the article about increasing decline rates - he see the decline in exploration as a result of mergers.

"that will trigger increased exploration and development, possibly in areas that are currently off-limits"

a bit of wishfull thinking - the enviros rolling over.

This guy looks like a believer that the Econ 101 principles of supply, price and demand trump physical reality. Maybe they due in the long run - Spring of 2004 or 2005 could easily see a gas glut, especially with a warm winter.
He also doesn't count the behavioral change that after the natrual gas price crash, E&P companies are much slower to spend money on drilling, AND (be forecast) will cut back on drilling at the first sign of price weakness.

It's a cyclical industry - I think that's the only thing I would agree with in his article.

I would like to see different viewpoints, as Ed points out.
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