Far from being the gambler Bush has been portrayed to be, it is the French, who were gambling. They were betting that their threat of a veto would prevent a vote on a second resolution. What they did not count on was Bush calling their bluff.
Forcing a vote on a second resolution UN seemed at first to be a risky strategy. The initial reaction and those opposed point out that this will further divide the Security Council and hurt our position in the world.
When managing risk, there is a standard principle to follow. For every risk, you classify what is the likelihood of the event (low, medium, high), and what is its impact, should it occur. In this case, the event is that a second resolution will not be passed by the Security Council.
The odds of occurrence are High (equal greater than 50%). However, what is the impact?
It is actually almost nothing. The Security Council is divided today. A vote could only have an impact measured in degrees, if any at all. Those who are against us will be against us regardless of the vote. The loss of the UN blessing would be a reference point for them, but it will not change their position or their predictable criticism in the slightest. Those who are with us still be with us.
Then there is the upside.
If the measure passes, there is some obvious political cover, particularly for Britain. In addition, France is clearly seen as the obstinate obstructionist. It is clear to any honest person that there is nothing that would ever convince them that force would be necessary. Then there is the fact that Bush standing up to them is seen as a positive domestically.
Forcing the vote places significant pressure on France. What are the chances of a French Veto? Consider that France abstained on the resolution under which UNMOVIC operates - UN Resolution 1284. France opposed these inspections vigorously. France desperately wants not to veto the resolution. Consider the effect. They risk much more than the US does. A veto by France would:
- Ensure that the new government of Iraq does no business with France for a very long time and probably result in the cancellation of debt owed to France.
- Move France farther into obscurity
- Make France appear hopelessly out of touch, when the full scale of Saddam’s heinousness is on display. In other words, their international credibility will be shot.
France risks a great deal with a veto. The odds are less than 50% that they will and they are working very hard to make sure they do not have to. If the measure passes and they use their veto, what is the impact? Will it stop the US and its’ coalition? Of course not. France is the only loser in this scenario.
Why are they doing this? Probably their business interests and that there will be several embarrassments found when we dig around in Iraq. Additionally, France sees themselves as the wise sage of the world. They also view themselves as the counter balance to the U.S. (Rather reminds you of a flea floating downstream with a hard-on yelling: “open the draw bridge”.)
The French have grossly miscalculated. This vote is a no lose situation for the US and President Bush. |
