Bob, I'd be glad to share my view, although I'm not sure you'll like what I have to say.
When you bought SU, you bought a stock that was overbought. Since we're not in a bull market, overbought stocks have a tendency to sell off on profit taking, as opposed to rising and breaking out to new highs. In my opinion, you bought at the worst time in a risk to reward basis. You had less than a dollar of upside potential before running head first into resistance, and you have a lot of downside exposure.
You've got strong price resistance in the 18.50-18.88 range. The best way to play this on a risk to reward basis would have been to wait and see if SU can break 18.88 and do it on strong volume. This would have placed you into the next trading range with some fairly good support beneath you.
Or, another way to play it would have been to wait for SU to come down to a major support level and buy any bounce off of it. The 50 day moving average is usually a good spot for this type of strategy.
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[pb50!b200!b9!i!b5!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lh14,3!Lh21,10!La5,17,9!La12,26,9!Lg]&pref=G
Your trade may still work out, you just didn't get a very good entry point, under the current condition of the market, on a risk to reward basis.
Sorry the analysis wasn't any better, but I'm merely the messenger, the market should take all the blame.
dabum |
