'Weather warriors' key on desert battlefield
Mon Mar 10, 7:34 AM ET Add Top Stories - USA TODAY to My Yahoo!
Patrick O'Driscoll USA TODAY
If the geopolitical forecast is for war in Iraq (news - web sites), it's the weather forecast that may determine when and how the fighting goes forward.
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Hundreds of ''weather warriors'' already are in the Persian Gulf, armed with tools and technology unavailable just a few years ago. That makes the estimated 250,000 U.S. troops now in the region the most weather-aware fighting force ever assembled.
''No military operation takes place without a weather person giving that pilot, tank driver or commander the weather,'' says Paige Hughes of the Air Force Weather Agency, which forecasts for the Air Force and Army.
The agency's motto describes the mission for all military branches: ''Anticipate and exploit the weather for battle.''
Air pressure, humidity and wind can alter the flight of artillery shells, missiles and bombs. Wind can hasten the spread of chemical or biological weapons. Clouds can obscure targets but can also help conceal aircraft from the enemy.
Most of all, desert heat can hamper ground troops, especially if they have to wear protective bio-chem suits and gas masks over heavy combat gear.
That's why speculation is so high that any assault would start this month. The average high temperatures in March are tolerable 50s-70s. In April and May, Baghdad's average daily temperature climbs into the 80s and 90s. The record springtime high is 117 for the desert and 100 in river valleys.
As temperatures rise, violent shamal winds from the north whip up dust storms that can reach as high as 40,000 feet and gust 60 mph or more on the ground. ''A good sandstorm is going to ground everything,'' says Master Sgt. Bruce Bellairs of the Air Force Special Operations Weather Operation Center near Omaha, which forecasts for secret missions.
Weathercasters have been involved in every step of the buildup. Air Force meteorologists plotted courses for aircraft going to the region. Navy ''mobile environmental teams'' charted routes for carriers and troop ships.
Once in the region, troops, pilots and sailors rely on weather briefings for training and other pre-war missions. Pilots will take off based on wind, cloud and dust conditions. For ground operations, Air Force and Marine Corps technicians will set up weather stations wherever the troops go.
Some Air Force ''Gray Beret'' commandos may drop behind enemy lines to take weather readings and fight beside Army Green Berets on clandestine missions.
In most cases, field meteorologists use laptops with satellite connections to send data about current conditions back to weather squadrons, oceanography centers and other bases. Specialists at those locations run the readings through computer models and send back fresh forecasts.
The weather squadron at Shaw Air Force Base near Sumter, S.C., has forecast duties for the Persian Gulf region and ''does the big picture,'' Bellairs says. ''Then you cut out your piece and do a forecast for whatever your requirement is.''
More than 7,000 uniformed and civilian weather staffers in the Air Force and Navy also forecast for the Army and Marines.
All weather forecasts mix current readings with historical data. Records for the Persian Gulf region go back to 19th-century British and French colonial rule. But few records from ground observations exist on Iraq for the past 20 years because of its isolation.
Even so, Air Force climatologists fashioned a computer model three years ago to plot forecasts there. It uses satellite data, past observations from pilots enforcing the no-fly zones over parts of Iraq and information from ground units in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
The Pentagon (news - web sites) won't divulge how many weather outposts are in the Persian Gulf. But during the last Iraqi war, the Air Force alone had about 500 weather staffers at more than 70 field locations.
In January 1991, the number of days that clouds around Baghdad prevented firing on targets was twice what planners had predicted. Laser-guided weapons couldn't ''see'' through clouds and smoke from burning Kuwaiti oilfields. Bad weather hindered missions one-third of the time.
By one account, the war's No. 2 general had to consult CNN weather reports before ordering stealth fighter jets to attack Baghdad.
This time, most bombs would carry ''all-weather'' systems that guide them to map coordinates using global-positioning satellite technology, known as GPS. But it won't eliminate the need for weather watchers.
''How do you get the (jet) in the right place to drop those GPS weapons? How do you launch them off the deck of aircraft carriers or the ground airfields?'' says Cmdr. Archer Wright of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command near Bay St. Louis, Miss.
In the field, combat meteorologists use portable weather stations that got a vigorous workout in Afghanistan (news - web sites) after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
''It's hard. Long hours. Dirty. Security threats,'' says Air Force Technical Sgt. Jim Williams, 34. For three weeks in Afghanistan last summer, Williams ''did'' the weather for an Army unit on the mountainous border of Pakistan.
While soldiers hunted for Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) and al-Qaeda, Williams carried his M-16 when he took his hourly weather readings. ''People are wanting to pick you off,'' he recalls. ''And by 10 a.m., it's 117, 119 degrees, easy. Hotter than snot.''
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