<Right, just like we ran out of oil in 1995 based on static linear calculations of reserves and production in 1975.>
>Who ever said that ??
You must remember the 1970s, when it was the "conventional wisdom" of the "experts". Hundreds (thousands??) of economists were predicting we were going to run out of everything led by Paul Erhlich (Population Bomb) and all his Malthusian forecasts of doom. Of course, we all know that this did not happen (Julian Simon was one of the few to go again them)
World populations are actually starting to stabilize and the UN keeps reducing their predictions of peak populations. They actually think we might reach an equilibrium near 10 billion around 2050, which would have been laughed at in the 1970s.
Likewise, all of the resources that should have been gone by now are still around. Due to economics (temporary price spikes) and technology there are more known oil reserves today than there were in 1975 - we replaced more than we used !
Gold should also benefit in the next decade by sustained prices ($350), along with a few spikes, and some technology for folks to go look for it where they previously have not. I have GREAT confidence in the gold miners industry to find more gold !! There should be at least 2-3 billion more ounces in the earth's crust.
As an aside (wacky theory), I'm actually thinking population could level at 10 billion people, gold at 7 billion ounces, and equilibrium (and price stability) achieved a .7 ounces per capita.
goldsheetlinks.com
Then maybe a world gold standard, and eventual elimination of all currencies and countries ??
> BTW, what do you think of the impact of China economic growth on the price of natural resources in the next 10-20 years.
Already addressed this in my GPM post. China may well be the growth engine at the end of this decade that puts pressure on the entire world economy, primarily commodity demand, especially base metals (less so precious metals) |
